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    王義國¹，吉安俊²，丁崢時¹，呂國良¹，李俊¹
    （1 江蘇省無錫交通高等職業(yè)技術(shù)學校汽車與交通工程系，無錫214151；2 無錫市第二市政工程有限公司，無錫214000）

[摘要] 灰色預測模型對隧道圍巖變形的預測有著較好的效果。研究結(jié)果表明，灰色Verhulst模型不僅可以對隧道圍巖變形進行短期預測還適合進行長期預測，且預測精度與參數(shù)口有關(guān)。在短期預測精度上，GM(1,1)優(yōu)化模型優(yōu)于Verhulst模型。
[關(guān)鍵詞] 隧道；圍巖變形；預測模型

Study on grey predication model of tunnel surrounding rock deformation
Wang Yiguo¹, JiAnjun², Ding Zhengshi¹, Lu Guoliang¹,  Li Jun¹
(1 Department ofAutomobile and Traffic Engineering, Jiangsu Wuxi Institute of Communications Technology, Wuxi 214151,China; 2  Wuxi Second Municipal Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Wuxi 214000,China)

Abstract: The prediction accuracy of grey prediction model is very high in prediction of tunnel surrounding rock
deformation. The results indicated that Verhulst model is suitable for not only short-term predicition but also long-term
predicition of tunnel surrounding rock deformation,and the prediction accuracy has relation with parameter a.GM(1,1)
optimization model is superior to Verhulst model on short-term predicition.
Keywords: tunnel; surrounding rock deformation; prediction model