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   吳毅彬^1,2，  金國芳¹，  瞿  革²
   （1 同濟大學(xué)結(jié)構(gòu)工程與防災(zāi)研究所，上海 200092； 2 中船第九設(shè)計研究院工程有限公司，上海200063）

[摘要] 考慮實際工程中的不確定因素，將工程結(jié)構(gòu)有限元分析與概率設(shè)計相結(jié)合。以一座存在初始缺陷的雙曲線型冷卻塔為工程背景，在對缺陷筒壁進行受力分析的基礎(chǔ)上，利用ANSYS有限元概率設(shè)計PDS模塊，采用混合模型分析方法對缺陷筒壁進行概率分析。結(jié)果表明，子午向彎矩M_x和環(huán)向軸力T_y對初始缺陷較為敏感，初始缺陷的存在使筒壁的失效概率明顯地增大，同時混凝土強度是對筒壁子午向與環(huán)向內(nèi)力影響最大的因素。相關(guān)分析思路與結(jié)果可為復(fù)雜工程的可靠度分析提供參考。
[關(guān)鍵詞] 雙曲線型冷卻塔；初始缺陷；概率分析；有限元PDS模塊
中圖分類號：TU375.5    文獻標識碼：A    文章編號：1002-848X(2012) Sl-0801-05

Probability analysis of hyperbolic cooling tower with initial geometrical imperfections
Wu Yibin^1,2, Jin Guofang¹, Qu ge²
(1 Research Institute of Structural Engineering and Disaster Reduction,Tongji Uruversity,Shanghai 200092, China; 2 Slupbuilding NDRI Engineering Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200063, China)

Abstract: In consideration of the uncertain factors, a hyperbolic cooling tower with initial geometrical imperfections is studied by the PDS module in ANSYS. Contrastive analysis is made on stress,internal force, displacement and failure probability of cooling tower shell. It is indicated that the value of M_x and T_y is sensitive to the initial geometrical imperfections, and the failure of strengthened shell in imperfections increase in large. The experience gained in this case can be taken for reference by the similar engineering projects.
Keywords: hyperbolic cooling tower; initial geometrical imperfections; probability analysis; PDS technology