- 摘 要
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王成華 李武君?。ㄌ旖虼髮W(xué)建筑工程學(xué)院 300072）
[提要] 建立了帶殘差修正的一維新陳代謝灰色模型，根據(jù)工程實(shí)際試樁資料對未壓壞樁荷載－沉降性狀進(jìn)行了預(yù)測分析，探討了灰色模型用于單樁荷載沉降關(guān)系曲線預(yù)測的具體技術(shù)和可行性。對未壓壞樁后半段荷載－沉降曲線進(jìn)行預(yù)測時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)，樁的破壞模式對預(yù)測的效果影響較大。對于漸進(jìn)型破壞樁的預(yù)測，可取得很好的預(yù)測精度，且有良好的適用性；而對于陡降型破壞樁，預(yù)測效果較差。通過采取加密預(yù)測取點(diǎn)法和引入修正系數(shù)的措施，使得對于陡降型樁的預(yù)測精度有較大提高。
[關(guān)鍵詞] 灰色模型 荷載－沉降關(guān)系 預(yù)測精度 破壞模式A metabolic one-dimensional grey model with error-correction is proposed to predict the entire load-settlement curves of piles that are actually not tested to failure state. The technique and its applicability of the grey model are discussed in detail. It is found, during the prediction of the last potion of load-settlement curve, that the failure patterns of piles have an essential influence on the accuracy of the prediction. For piles with progressive failure pattern, the accuracy of the prediction is excellent and the applicability of the model is very well. The accuracy of the prediction of piles with sudden failure pattern is initially far from satisfaction. The accuracy of the piles with sudden failure pattern can be substantially improved with the methods of condensing sampling points and introducing of a modify parameter.
Keywords: grey model; load-settlement curve; prediction accuracy; failure patterns參 考 文 獻(xiàn)
1．鄧聚龍．灰色預(yù)測與決策．華中理工大學(xué)出版社，1986．
2．周國林．單樁極限承載力的灰色預(yù)測，巖土力學(xué)，1991，12(1)
3．陳國興，金永彬，宰金珉．復(fù)合地基與單樁承載力的灰色預(yù)測．見：21世紀(jì)高層建筑基礎(chǔ)工程，中國建筑工業(yè)出版社，2000．
4．李武君．單樁荷載沉降性狀的神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)與灰色模型預(yù)測研究．天津：天津大學(xué)建筑工程學(xué)院，2000．
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