- 摘 要
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［摘要］利用地震事件出現(xiàn)概率及給定地震事件的液化條件概率可估計液化的危險性。液化條件概率由binary-logistic模型對液化和未液化歷史情況的基本數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行回歸分析確定；給定地震事件出現(xiàn)概率來自常規(guī)的地震動危險性的概率分析?；谛詰B(tài)地震工程理念，將液化安全系數(shù)和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)貫入錘擊數(shù)(SPT)分別作為工程需求參數(shù)，計算特定場址液化概率。計算結(jié)果可用液化安全系數(shù)或液化需求錘擊數(shù)的危險曲線來表示?；谛詰B(tài)的液化危險性估計途徑可能比常規(guī)的方法更合理和一致地預(yù)測不同地震區(qū)場址出現(xiàn)液化的可能性。應(yīng)用上述方法對北京地區(qū)不同地段各種設(shè)定土層情況進(jìn)行液化危險性分析，分別得到了液化危險曲線。為便于工程應(yīng)用，根據(jù)上述分析得到的大量樣本及液化標(biāo)準(zhǔn)貫入錘擊數(shù)基準(zhǔn)值概念和土層埋深水位影響系數(shù)，提出了北京地區(qū)液化危險性評估的簡化方法。相信其他地震區(qū)采用類同的方法也會得到適合該地區(qū)的液化危險性分析結(jié)果。
［關(guān)鍵詞］基于性態(tài)地震工程；液化危險性；液化條件概率；液化安全系數(shù)；液化需求錘擊數(shù)基準(zhǔn)值
中圖分類號：TU375.4 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識碼：A文章編號：1002-848X(2011)11-0022-06
Performance-based liquefaction hazard evaluation
Fu Shengcong, Jiang Jingbei, Huang Shimin(CABR Technology Co., Ltd., China Academy of Building Research, Beijing 100013, China)
Abstract：The liquefaction condition probability of given seismic event and the annual probability of a seismic event are used to estimate liquefaction hazard at a specific site. The liquefaction condition probability is derived by the method of binary-logistic regression to analyze the database of field case histories of liquefaction and nonliquefaction occurrences. The annual probability of a seismic event is given by conventional earthquake hazard analysis. According to the conception of performance-based earthquake engineering，the factor of safety against liquefaction and penetration resistance are respectively adopted as a demand parameter for evaluation of liquefaction potential. The results can be expressed by hazard curves for factor of safety against liquefaction or demand penetration resistance. The performance-based approach could predict liquefaction hazard more accurately and conformably in various seismic regions than conventional procedures. The liquefaction hazard analysis for various assumed conditions of soil layers at sites located in Beijing area is performed by the procedure and the liquefaction hazard curves at these sites are respectively obtained. Based on a great deal of samples from the calculation and the conception of liquefied demand reference value of SPT，and influence coefficient of depth of soil layers and ground water levels, a simplified liquefaction hazard evaluation method in Beijing area is proposed. The method for estimating liquefaction hazard could also be established to other seismic regions.
Keywords： performance-based earthquake engineering； liquefaction; hazard；safety factor; condition probability； liquefied demand reference value; SPT
作者簡介:符圣聰（1937-），男，研究員，研究方向：工程抗震，Email：fushengcong@sohu.com。
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