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（1 寧波市電力設(shè)計(jì)院有限公司， 寧波 315000； 2 浙江大學(xué)建筑工程學(xué)院， 杭州 310058）

［摘要］采用了一種統(tǒng)計(jì)確定性模型結(jié)合4種不同的全球氣候預(yù)測(cè)模型考察了氣候變化對(duì)臺(tái)風(fēng)設(shè)計(jì)風(fēng)速的影響，該方法以給定的氣候環(huán)境條件為驅(qū)動(dòng)采用統(tǒng)計(jì)模型生成大量的數(shù)值臺(tái)風(fēng)，因而可以模擬歷史和未來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)氣候條件下臺(tái)風(fēng)的發(fā)生情況。以杭州地區(qū)為例闡述了氣候變化影響下設(shè)計(jì)臺(tái)風(fēng)風(fēng)速?gòu)?0世紀(jì)末到21世紀(jì)中葉的演化情況。研究結(jié)果顯示：基于歷史重分析氣象條件模擬到的不同重現(xiàn)期臺(tái)風(fēng)設(shè)計(jì)風(fēng)速與歷史觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)的分析結(jié)果吻合較好，表明該統(tǒng)計(jì)模型具有可靠性。大部分的氣候模型預(yù)測(cè)顯示杭州地區(qū)21世紀(jì)中葉的設(shè)計(jì)臺(tái)風(fēng)風(fēng)速將可能超過(guò)20世紀(jì)末，且100年重現(xiàn)期下的設(shè)計(jì)臺(tái)風(fēng)風(fēng)速隨時(shí)間呈現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)。因此在抗風(fēng)設(shè)計(jì)中有必要考慮氣候變化對(duì)設(shè)計(jì)風(fēng)速所造成的影響。

［關(guān)鍵詞］設(shè)計(jì)風(fēng)速； 氣候變化； 統(tǒng)計(jì)確定性模型； 地貌修正； 廣義Pareto分布

中圖分類號(hào)：TU312文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A文章編號(hào)：1002-848X(2020)14-0068-05

Study on design typhoon wind speed considering climate change

ZHONG Weijun1, XU Haiwei2, GUO Gaopeng1, YAN Haojun1

(1 Ningbo Electric Power Design Institute Co., Ltd.， Ningbo 315000, China;2 College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

Abstract:A statistical deterministic model combined with 4 different global climate projection models were used to investigate influence of climate change on design typhoon wind speed. This method can produce sufficient synthetic typhoons driven by given climatic environment conditions, thus it can be used to simulate typhoon under historical and projected climate conditions. Hangzhou area was used as an example to explain the influence of climate change on  evolvement of design typhoon wind speed from late 20th century to middle 21th century. The study shows that design typhoon wind speeds of different return periods estimated from reanalysis  climate condition and  historical observational data matched well, indicating that the applied statistical model is  accurate. Most of studied climate models project that design typhoon wind speed of Hangzhou at middle 21th century would exceed that of late 20th century and the design typhoon wind speed corresponding to 100-year return period increases with time. Therefore, it is necessary to consider effects of climate change on design wind speed in wind-resistant design.

Keywords:design wind speed； climate change； statistical deterministic model； terrain correction；generalized Pareto distribution

*中央高?；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)(2018QNA4026)，國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金（51978614）。

作者簡(jiǎn)介：鐘維軍，碩士，高級(jí)工程師，Email:zwj3947@163.com。