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(1 長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)公路學(xué)院， 西安 710064； 2 同濟(jì)大學(xué)土木工程學(xué)院， 上海 200092；

3 中國(guó)建筑設(shè)計(jì)院有限公司， 北京 100044)

［摘要］建筑結(jié)構(gòu)極值風(fēng)速預(yù)測(cè)的研究在結(jié)構(gòu)設(shè)計(jì)與安全使用領(lǐng)域具有重要意義。基于Bayes理論提出極值風(fēng)速預(yù)測(cè)方法，采用Monte Carlo數(shù)值模擬方法產(chǎn)生服從極值-I型分布的偽風(fēng)速母樣，基于偽風(fēng)速母樣分別采用基于Bayes理論和最大似然估計(jì)理論的極值-I型風(fēng)速預(yù)測(cè)方法進(jìn)行風(fēng)速預(yù)測(cè)，并與偽風(fēng)速母樣的理論值進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析。研究結(jié)果表明：與最大似然估計(jì)法相比，采用基于Bayes理論建立的極值-I型風(fēng)速預(yù)測(cè)模型進(jìn)行風(fēng)速預(yù)測(cè)的精度更高。

［關(guān)鍵詞］Bayes理論； 極值-I型； 偽風(fēng)速母樣； 風(fēng)速預(yù)測(cè)； 最大似然估計(jì)

中圖分類號(hào)： TU973.2+13 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼： A文章編號(hào)：  1002-848X(2016)S1-0986-03

Research on extreme wind speed forecasting method of building

 structure based on Bayesian theory

Lou Canhong1, Dong Fenghui2, Yao Yuan3, Lian Yu2

(1 Highway College of Chang′an University, Xi′an 710064, China; 2 School of Civil Engineering, Tongji University,

 Shanghai 200092, China; 3 China Architecture Design Group, Beijing 100044, China)

Abstract: The investigation of wind speed forecast of extreme value type distribution has a great significance for the building structural design and use. The wind speed forecast method of extreme value type distribution were constructed, and Monte Carlo simulation method is used to produce the pseudo wind speed samples. The maximum likelihood parameter estimation method and Bayes statistical theory were used to estimate the wind forecast value of the extreme value type I distribution, which has been done by comparing with the theoretical extreme value type I distribution of the pseudo wind speed. The result indicates that the wind speed forecast model of extreme value type I distribution based on Bayes theory is optimal than the maximum likelihood estimation. 

Keywords: Bayes theory; extreme value type I distribution; pseudo wind speed sample; wind speed forecast; maximum likelihood estimation