基于貝葉斯理論的增量動力分析曲線簇統(tǒng)計分析方法*
何益斌1，鄧鵬1，張超1，方亮1，2，沈蒲生1
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（1 湖南大學土木工程學院，長沙 410082； 2 湖南農(nóng)業(yè)大學工學院，長沙 410128）
［摘要］地震易損性分析是評估建筑結(jié)構(gòu)抗震性能的重要手段，增量動力分析又是地震易損性分析的數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)，其曲線簇的統(tǒng)計分析直接關(guān)系著地震易損性分析結(jié)果。然而，由于增量動力分析曲線存在“非單調(diào)”、“回折”和“平臺階段”等復雜現(xiàn)象，常見的統(tǒng)計分析方法均存在一定的限制?；谪惾~斯理論，提出了一種新的統(tǒng)計分析方法。該方法可以較好地解決由于增量動力分析曲線簇的復雜性而引起的統(tǒng)計問題。最后，利用提出的貝葉斯統(tǒng)計分析方法對一個3跨3層鋼筋混凝土框架結(jié)構(gòu)開展了地震易損性分析，表明該方法可以有效地開展IDA曲線簇統(tǒng)計分析。［關(guān)鍵詞］增量動力分析; 統(tǒng)計分析; 地震易損性; 分位線; 貝葉斯理論中圖分類號：TU375.4 文獻標識碼：A 文章編號：1002-848X(2016)03-0044-05
Statistical analysis method of incremental dynamic analysis curves based on Bayesian methodologyHe Yibin1, Deng Peng 1, Zhang Chao1, Fang Liang1, 2, Shen Pusheng1(1 College of Civil Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China; 2 College of Engineering, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128, China)Abstract:Seismic fragility analysis is an important tool to assess the seismic performance of buildings. Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is the data basis of seismic fragility analysis. The statistical analysis of IDA curves profoundly affects the seismic fragility results. However, since the behaviour of IDA curves features complicated phenomena such as nonmonotonic, back-and-forth twisting and platform, the application of conventional statistical analysis method is limited. Thus, a new statistical analysis based on Bayesian methodology was proposed to address these statistical problems brought by the complex behaviour of IDA curves. Finally, seismic fragility analysis was performed for a three-story and three-bay RC frame by the proposed Bayesian statistical analysis method, which shows that this method can effectively conduct IDA curve statistical analysis.Keywords:incremental dynamic analysis; statistical analysis; seismic fragility; fractile curve; Bayesian methodology
*科技部國際科技合作與交流專項（2011DFA72320），“十二五”國家科技支撐計劃項目（No.2012BAK15B02），湖南省教育廳科學研究項目（11B062）。作者簡介：何益斌，教授，博士生導師，教育部長江學者特聘教授，Email：ybhe@hnu.edu.cn。
