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（南京工業(yè)大學(xué) 交通學(xué)院，江蘇南京 210009）

[摘要]城市土地抗震適宜性評(píng)價(jià)可以通過土地發(fā)生地震災(zāi)害的概率大小來劃分等級(jí)，而土地地震災(zāi)害的發(fā)生與否，是典型的二分類變量問題，運(yùn)用Logistic回歸模型處理這類（0，1）區(qū)間的概率問題，可以得到較理想的擬合效果，為城市土地抗震適宜性評(píng)價(jià)提供較合理的量化指標(biāo)。而進(jìn)行Logistic回歸分析需要較大的樣本數(shù)據(jù)，原始資料數(shù)據(jù)顯然不能滿足分析要求，這就需要利用GIS的空間分析功能進(jìn)行空間插值，得到足夠的樣本數(shù)據(jù)，運(yùn)用SPSS數(shù)值運(yùn)算軟件，進(jìn)行二分Logistic回歸分析。本文通過得到城市土地抗震適宜性的量化評(píng)價(jià)方法，以南京市為例，分析南京市具體地質(zhì)情況，得到評(píng)價(jià)體系，并對(duì)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)賦值，通過運(yùn)用Logistic模型得到評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)權(quán)重和城市土地地震災(zāi)害概率公式，利用計(jì)算得到的地震災(zāi)害概率，實(shí)現(xiàn)定量化評(píng)價(jià)土地抗震適宜性的目的。

[關(guān)鍵詞]抗震適宜性;Logistic回歸模型;GIS;SPSS

中圖分類號(hào)：TU435      文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A      文章編號(hào)：1002-848X(2013)S1-1479-04   

作者簡介：袁媛，碩士，Email：358751744@qq.com。

Research on Evaluation Method for Urban Land Aseismic Suitability Based on the Logistic Model——With Nanjing as an Example

YUAN Yuan,CHEN Xinmin,YUAN Zongpan

(College of Transportation, Nanjing University of Technology,Nanjing Jiangsu 210009 China)

Abstract: Evaluation on urban land seismic suitability can be graded by the probability of earthquake disaster. Earthquake disaster of land occur or not is a typical problem of binary variables. Using Logistic regression model to deal with this kind of (0,1) inter probability problems can get ideal fitting effect. It can provide more reasonable quantitative indicators about evaluation on urban land aseismic suitability. Logistic regression analysis requires a large sample data. Logistic regression analysis requires a large sample data. The original data obviously can not meet the requirements for analysis, which requires the use of spatial analysis capabilities of GIS spatial interpolation to obtain a sufficient data. Then, the use of SPSS numerical computing software is to analyze binary Logistic regression model. In this paper, the quantitative evaluation method of urban land seismic suitability can be used with Nanjing as a example. Firstly, the evaluation system and evaluation index assignment of Nanjing can be get through studying the specific geological conditions of Nanjing. Secondly, the weight of evaluation indicators and the formula of the probability of the earthquake disaster on urban land can be obtained by using Logistic model. Finally, using the calculated probability of earthquake disaster was used to achieve the purpose of quantitative evaluation of land seismic suitability.

Keywords: seismic suitability; Logistic regression model; GIS; SPSS